Powerball Odds Explained: Your Chances in Every Prize Tier

The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292,201,338 for each $2 play, and the odds of winning any prize at all are about 1 in 24.87. Those two numbers come from simple counting: there are exactly 292,201,338 different ways to fill out one Powerball play, and 11,750,538 of them win something in any given drawing.

This guide shows where every one of those numbers comes from. You don't need anything beyond multiplication and division to follow along, and once you see the method, you will be able to check any lottery's odds yourself.

How a Powerball play is built

A Powerball play has two parts, drawn from two separate drums:

• Five white balls chosen from 1 to 69. Order does not matter, and no number can repeat.
• One red Powerball chosen from 1 to 26. It can match one of your white numbers, because it comes from a different drum.

Each play costs $2. Power Play (+$1) and Double Play (+$1, where offered) are optional add-ons, and neither one changes the odds of matching numbers in the main drawing. If you are new to the game, our beginner's guide to playing Powerball covers the ticket itself; here we focus on the math.

Counting every possible ticket

Step 1: The white balls

The number of ways to choose 5 numbers from 69 when order doesn't matter is written C(69, 5), "69 choose 5":

C(69, 5) = (69 × 68 × 67 × 66 × 65) ÷ (5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1) = 1,348,621,560 ÷ 120 = 11,238,513

The top line counts the ways to draw five balls in order. The bottom line removes the duplicates, because the 120 different orderings of the same five numbers are the same play.

Step 2: Add the red ball

There are 26 possible Powerballs, and any of them can sit alongside any set of white balls:

11,238,513 × 26 = 292,201,338

That is the total number of distinct plays, and exactly one of them matches all six numbers in a drawing. That is why the jackpot odds are 1 in 292,201,338.

The odds for every prize tier

To find the odds of a lower tier, count how many of the 292,201,338 plays land in that tier. Think of the 69 white balls as two groups after the drawing: the 5 winning white balls and the 64 non-winning ones. For the red ball there is 1 winning Powerball and 25 non-winning ones.

For "match k white balls," you need k of your numbers from the 5 winners and the rest from the 64 losers. Then you multiply by 1 (if you also match the Powerball) or 25 (if you don't).

To turn "winning plays" into odds, divide 292,201,338 by the count. For example, 292,201,338 ÷ 320 = 913,129.18, the odds of matching four white balls plus the Powerball. Every figure in the odds column matches the official Powerball prize chart. Prizes shown are base amounts; Power Play can multiply the non-jackpot prizes, and California pays lower tiers on a pari-mutuel basis.

Why "Powerball only" is 1 in 38.32, not 1 in 26

This tier confuses a lot of people, and the official Powerball FAQs address it directly. Your chance of matching the red ball really is 1 in 26. But the "Powerball only" prize requires you to match the red ball and miss all five white balls. If you also hit one white ball, you land in the "1 + Powerball" tier instead.

The chance of matching zero white balls is C(64,5) ÷ C(69,5) = 7,624,512 ÷ 11,238,513, or about 67.8%. Multiply that by 1/26 and you get 1 in 38.32.

Why matching two white balls alone pays nothing

Look at what's missing from the table: matching two white balls without the Powerball, one white ball alone, or nothing at all. Matching just two white balls happens on 10,416,000 plays (C(5,2) × C(64,3) × 25), or about 1 in 28.05. That tier is far too common to fund a prize, which is why two white numbers alone don't pay anything.

The overall odds: 1 in 24.87

Add up every winning play in the table:

1 + 25 + 320 + 8,000 + 20,160 + 504,000 + 416,640 + 3,176,880 + 7,624,512 = 11,750,538

Then divide: 292,201,338 ÷ 11,750,538 = 24.87. So about 1 play in 25 wins some prize, or roughly 4.02%. The other 95.98% win nothing.

Notice where those wins come from. The two $4 tiers account for 10,801,392 of the 11,750,538 winning plays, about 92% of them. When people say "1 in 25 tickets wins," most of those winners get $4 back on a $2 play.

Worked examples: putting the numbers in perspective

Big numbers are hard to picture. Here are a few ways to make them concrete.

One play every drawing. Powerball draws three times a week (Monday, Wednesday and Saturday at 10:59 p.m. ET), about 156 drawings a year. If you bought one play for every drawing, you would expect to wait 292,201,338 ÷ 156 ≈ 1.87 million years on average to hit the jackpot once.

Ten plays in one drawing. If you buy 10 different plays for the same drawing, your jackpot chance becomes 10 in 292,201,338, about 1 in 29.2 million. Your chance of winning at least one prize of any size is 1 − (1 − 0.0402)¹⁰ ≈ 33.7%. In other words, even with 10 plays, the most likely outcome (about two times in three) is no prize at all.

Lightning comparisons. Comparisons such as "more likely to be struck by lightning" depend on whose statistics you use and over what time period, so we won't quote one. The honest takeaway is simpler: the jackpot is a very long shot, and the price of a ticket is best treated as the cost of entertainment.

What does not change your odds

A few common beliefs don't hold up against the math above:

• Picking your own numbers vs. Quick Pick. Every one of the 292,201,338 combinations has exactly the same chance. A random Quick Pick is neither luckier nor unluckier than a set you choose.
• "Hot" or "due" numbers. The balls have no memory. Each drawing is independent, so past results don't make any number more or less likely next time.
• Power Play. It changes how much some prizes pay, not your chance of matching numbers.
• The jackpot size. A $1 billion jackpot and a $20 million jackpot have exactly the same odds. Only the payout and the chance of sharing it change.
• Buying more plays. Each extra distinct play adds 1 in 292,201,338 to your jackpot chance. Ten plays are ten times better than one, but still about 1 in 29.2 million.

Odds vs. probability: a quick note

Lotteries say "odds of 1 in 24.87," but strictly speaking that's a probability: 1 winning outcome per 24.87 equally likely outcomes. A mathematician would say the "odds against" are 23.87 to 1. Both describe the same chance; this article follows the lottery convention because that's what you see on tickets and on powerball.com.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot?

1 in 292,201,338 per play. That's C(69,5) × 26: the number of ways to pick five white balls from 69, times 26 possible red Powerballs.

What are the odds of winning any Powerball prize?

About 1 in 24.87. Of the 292,201,338 possible plays, 11,750,538 win at least $4 in any given drawing.

Do the odds get better when the jackpot is bigger?

No. The odds depend only on how many balls are in each drum, and that never changes from drawing to drawing. A bigger jackpot attracts more players, which raises the chance that a jackpot win is shared.

Does it matter which numbers I pick?

Not for your chance of winning. Every combination is equally likely. The only thing your choice can affect is how many other people pick the same numbers, which matters only if you win a pari-mutuel prize such as the jackpot.

Is playing Powerball a good way to make money?

No. The odds are long and most plays win nothing, so think of a ticket as entertainment with a fixed cost you're comfortable losing. You must be at least 18 to play (older in some states). If lottery play stops feeling like fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738) for free, confidential help.

The bottom line

All of Powerball's odds come from one fact: there are 292,201,338 equally likely ways to fill out a play. Count how many of those land in each prize tier and you get every number on the prize chart, from 1 in 38.32 for the Powerball alone to 1 in 292,201,338 for the jackpot. Knowing the math won't change your luck, but it does help you decide how much a ticket is worth to you. To see what each tier actually pays, check our Powerball prize chart, and for the cost of the optional multiplier read Power Play explained.